Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season
Welcome I don't know if anyone will be here for now, but here's a fine start to the Pacific typhoon season! Ryan1000 22:17, January 18, 2011 (UTC) December 25W.NONAME 93W.INVEST It's here, but I doubt it would form.Cyclone10 03:09, December 3, 2011 (UTC) Still here, realy close to the Equator.Cyclone10 02:57, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression 25W Now a depression. 13R. '' 14:22, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Who knew?Cyclone10 16:46, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Not going to make a landfall now.Cyclone10 21:23, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Is this expected to become a named storm? Andrew444TalkBlog 23:00, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Not even close.Cyclone10 23:11, December 4, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of 25W What a fail. '''Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 02:55,12/5/2011 what an epic fail i will sayAllanjeffs 23:43, December 10, 2011 (UTC) 26W.NONAME 94W.INVEST Another one. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 15:49,12/10/2011 Now a TD per JMA, and TCFA issued. ''13R. '' 21:14, December 10, 2011 (UTC) TCFA cancelled, guess this isn't happening. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 07:36,12/11/2011 2 people were killed from this storm. ''13R. '' 10:14, December 11, 2011 (UTC) At this rate, we may not get another WPAC storm! Andrew444TalkBlog 13:22, December 11, 2011 (UTC) Still a TD. ''13R. '' 17:30, December 11, 2011 (UTC) Medium chance by JTWC. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 19:49,12/11/2011 Tropical Depression 26W Who knew!-- ...That this would even exist. This thing will collapse by tomorrow or later today. It won't become our next named system, I don't think. 'Ryan1000 21:43, December 12, 2011 (UTC) Yeah...this looks dead on satellite. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 01:37,12/13/2011 Gone. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 21:10,12/13/2011 :What a fail...it could be compared to 25W.Cyclone10 02:18, December 14, 2011 (UTC) 97W.INVEST 97W.INVEST South-east of the Philippines... this won't help them... :S —''13R. '' 11:28, December 25, 2011 (UTC) The Philippines are getting more heavy rains as we speak on Mandano, so it doesn't really matter if 97W does develop or not. I hope they don't get a hit from this storm, because to be honest, the islands really don't need another blow, and I sure hope they don't get one. 2011 is just days from over and although it was an odd year, it was also a terrible one for many places around the world. Ryan1000 18:48, December 26, 2011 (UTC) The death toll because of Washi stands at 1,250 and it could rise to 2,000 Allanjeffs 18:34, December 27, 2011 (UTC) Allan, the actual death toll is 1,236. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:20, December 28, 2011 (UTC) Wow, that's awful. That's almost as bad as Durian was in death toll. Ryan1000 01:54, December 29, 2011 (UTC) Update: Washi has now caused 1,249 confirmed deaths! Andrew444TalkBlog 03:31, December 29, 2011 (UTC) Base on the blog of Dr Master Washi is the second deadliest storm in the Phillippines with 1249 after Thelma which killed 5956 Allanjeffs 20:23, December 30, 2011 (UTC) That's impressive, but the storm caught them off guard because of flooding and mudslides. It's not that everyone didn't leave before Washi hit, it's just that Washi brought more rain to them than expected and the impacts were horrific in the end. If Washi and Talas both become retired after this year, they would be the 2nd and 3rd JMA tropical storms to be retired in the West Pacific(the first one was Bilis in 2006; Vaemi was a minimal typhoon at it's peak). Ryan1000 21:16, December 31, 2011 (UTC) Farewell This year might not have been more of a epic fail than 2010, but this season looked like it was dead after October. Cyclone10 21:19, November 30, 2011 (UTC) It wasn't the worst, but it does tie 1977 for the third least active WPac year on record. Only last year and 1998 had fewer storms than 2011. Also, the last category 5 storm of this year was Muifa back in July. I'm pretty sure no other worldwide year has ever had their last category 5 storm that early. Nanmadol came really close, but it peaked at 155 mph, not 160 or higher. Ryan1000 18:09, December 3, 2011 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance We have some storms and some possible retirement canidates in the WPac. Anyone have any calls here? Here's mine: *Aere - 40% - It killed more than 40 people in the Philipines and caused several million dollars in damage. If it's PAGASA name, Bebeng, became retired, Aere itself also has a chance as well. However, just because a storm´s PAGASA name becomes retired doesn´t exactly mean it´s JMA name will too. *Songda - 8% - A very rare May category 5, but fortunately it didn't cause signifigant damage on land. *Sarika - 45% - Well, this thing did do 248 million in damage and 29 deaths, so although Sarika was the weakest storm thus far, it was also the most damaging storm thus far with a moderate death toll, so it certainly has a chance. But like Ma-On, China has seen much worse (Chanchu, Saomai, Bilis, Rananim, ect). *Haima - 5% - It was minor, and caused no more impact than Songda, in general. *Meari - 5% - It was feared to be stronger, but it never caused signifigant damage on land. *Ma-on - 10% - It only hit as a category one storm, it apparently wasn´t that bad after all. It did do about 27 million in damages and kill 5 people, but Japan has seen much worse than that. *Tokage - 0% - What an epic fail. *Nock-Ten - 65% - It killed a lot of people in the Philipines and Vietnam, but it's not like they haven't seen this before (Xangsane, Angela, Durian, etc.), so I'm going to be conservative and say maybe to Nock-Ten. However, "Juaning" is gone due to the damage and deaths it did in the Philipines. *Muifa - 65% - The latest damage figure is out, and my opinion on Muifa is similar to mine on Sarika; it killed a fair ammount of people and cause somewhat extensive damage, but the areas affected by Muifa have gone through much worse. *Merbok - 0% - Other than becoming a typhoon briefly, what did this thing do? *Nanmadol - 75% - Destruction in the Philipines and Taiwan was quite severe, so this thing is the first storm with a serious chance of retirement. *Talas - 93% - Whoa, I didn't expect to see 73 deaths in Japan from this typhoon. It dropped record rainfall in some places and was very devastating too. Overall, Japan has seen worse, and it's not a gurantee, but still, 73 deaths is a big number for Japan, and it has a descent chance of getting the boot. *Noru - 0% - Did I miss something? *Kulap - 0% - It tried... but it failed. *Roke - 20% - It killed 13 people, but Talas was much worse for them, not to mention Japan has seen typhoons like Roke almost every year. *Sonca - 0% - Gave me something to look at for a few days. *Nesat - 75% - Over 60 deaths, lots of damage, this thing's definitely a canidate. *Haitang - 5% - Nothing exceptionally severe. *Nalgae - 20% - Super typhoon landfall in the Philipines, but it killed only 10 people, so chances aren't exactly in favor of us seeing a retirement with Nalgae. *Banyan - 20% - No severe impacts, so probrably no retirement. *Washi - 99% - Wow, I never thought Washi would be this bad. The Philippines have just had a battering this year. With over 1,200 people dead, I would be shocked if this name isn't retired. There's always a very slim chance it won't happen, but there's pretty much no excuse for this name to stay on the list again. Ryan1000 01:57, December 29, 2011 (UTC) Mine: JMA: ''' Aere - 80% - DEVESTATED a whole country, left millions of dollars in it's path, got its PAGASA name removed, no way this monster is staying, he'd have to pull a Karl not to be removed. Songda - 4% - Very notable, but little damage. Sarika - 95% - '''EXTREMELY damaging, was worse than Aere, and left lots of damage to China. I don't think Sarika has a chance of staying at all. Haima - 25% - Added on to Sarika, but not much. Meari - 0% - OOOH...FISHIE! Ma-on - 40% - I saw the waves crash on shore (via video) and Ma-on has a good chance. Tokage - 0% - Nothing at all. Nock-ten - 70% - $140 million (of) damages and 55 deaths in Vietnam, China and the Philippines? Likely to be retired this December. Muifa - 50% - Devestated China, Korea, and and Japan! This has a VERY good shot at going. But then, it wasn't Aere or Sarika bad. Merbok - 0% - Okay... what did this do? Nanmadol - 50% - See Ma-on's section Talas - 40% - See Ma-on's section. Noru - 0% - Fishie. Kulap - 0% - Epic FAIL! Roke - 20% - Overshadowed by Talas. Sonca - 0% - No. Nesat - 99% - See Pedring's section. Haitang - 10% - Overshadowed by Sarika and Haima. Nalgae - 90% - See Nesat's and Pedring's sections. Banyan - 5% - Didn't pull an Aere or Nesat. Washi - 99% - I'm gonna say right now, Washi has to go. It killed 1,236 people, our deadliest worldwide cyclone. There is absoloutely no excuse for this storm to stay. PAGASA: ''' Amang - 0% - What did this do again? (Bebeng already removed) Chedeng - 1% - See Amang's section. Dodong - 4% - The chances aren't very good, because more damage happened in China. Egay - 2% - See Dodong's section. Falcon - 0% - Don't you love fishies? Goring - 1% - Ditto. Hanna - 0% - And she did nothing (again). Ineng - 2% - Because Japan saw more from this than the Phillipines. Juaning - 95% - P1 billion of damages and 52 deaths? No way, this has a '''very big chance of being retired. Kabayan - 4% - See Dodong's section. Lando - 0% - see Amang, Chedeng, Falcon and Hanna's sections. Mina - 100% - She has been retired. Nonoy - 0% - .This was nothing. Onyok - 0% - The epic fail. Pedring - 100% - WHOA! WHAT HAPPENED HERE? Quiel - 96% - Just because Pedring was worse. Ramon - 4% - No Bebeng for the Philippines. Sendong - 99% - I will be very angry if this does not go. BTW, I only have 99% because Sendong could pull a Paul or Gordon and not go. Andrew444 13:06, July 10, 2011 (UTC) Update: Juaning has been retired. IMO, it had to go because it had both more damage and deaths than Bebeng (Aere) back in May. Hurricane Andrew (444) Update 2: Mina is gone, too. Hurricane Andrew (444) Here's mine: *TD 2- 0% - No brainer. **Amang- 0% - It turned away from the Phillipines. *Aere- 30% - It only did damage in the Phillipines. **Bebeng- Gone *Songda- 0% - Other than reaching STY strength, what did this thing do? **Chedeng- 5% - Not enough damage. *Sarika- 30% - China has seen worse than this. **Dodong- 0% - More damages were reported from China. *Haima- 10% - It did some damage but it didn't do enough. **Egay- 0% - Went above Phillipines. *Meari- 5% - Little damage reported. **Falcon- 0% - See Egay's section. *TD **Goring- 0% - See Falcon's section. *Ma-on- 5% - Japan has seen worse than this. **Ineng- 0% - It was never close. *Tokage- 0% - Fishspinner. **Hanna- 0% - See Amang's section. *Nock-Ten- 60% - Lots of deaths in this storm. **Juaning- Gone. *Muifa- 20% - See Sarika's section. **Kabayan- 0% - See Dodong's section. *TD **Lando- 0% - I love fish. *Merbok- 0% - What did this thing do? *Nanmadol- 70% - It did a lot of damage in Taiwan. **Mina- Gone. *Talas- 70% - I've changed my mind about this storm. *Noru- 0% - What a fail. *Kulap- 0% - See Noru's section. **Nonoy - 0% - I seen storms doing that, and still had a better chance of retirement. *Roke- 75% - Take Talas as an example. **Onyok - 0% - Nope.. *Sonca - 0% - I know what I'm doing. *Nesat - 50% - How bad did the damage get in Vietnam? **Pedring - Gone. *Haitang - 10% - Haima had a better retirement chance than this. *Nalgae - 40% - I can't say this will be retired, but I can't say this won't be retired. **Quiel - 40% - Pedring did more damage. *Banyan - 0% - All hopes are flushed... **Ramon - 5% - It's been overshadowed. *Washi - Gone. **Sendong - Gone. --Cy10-- 17:08, February 25, 2012 (UTC) Update 3: Pedring is gone, too. (Do we have the record number of PAGASA retirees in one year?) Hurricane Andrew (444) Yes we do. 10Q. 22:28, September 29, 2011 (UTC) Whoa?! Five PAGASA retirees? Amazing. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:24, December 18, 2011 (UTC) UPDATE! Washi has been retired!!! --Andrew444TalkBlog 13:49, February 25, 2012 (UTC) Just Washi was retired? I would have retire Talas if I could.that was me by the way but just Washi was retire i thought that they will retire Talas to all the damage it cause in Japan.Allanjeffs 00:50, February 26, 2012 (UTC) : Andrew, you said that a bit late. --Cy10-- 17:08, February 25, 2012 (UTC) :: Ah well. We came late several times before here on Hurricane Wiki (June 2009 had no edits in on the EPac forum and we had 3 storms form in June, including a hurricane!!) I would have retired Talas as well as Washi, but I'm okay with the WMO's decision. All that matters is Washi is gone. That being said, it is only the second tropical storm to be retired on JMA's lists. Bilis was the other one. Farewell to the 2011 PTS. Ryan1000 14:56, February 28, 2012 (UTC) Replacement names No harm in starting this. Does anyone have replacement names for Bebeng and/or Juaning? Here are some: Female J names (Juaning): Janisa, Jardena, June, Jada, Jade, Jeanette, June, Jun, Judit, Judy, Julia Female B names (Bebeng) (continuing HM99's list): Bonnie, Brittany, Bri, Bonny, Bertha, Bebe, Belinda, Belle, Bella, Bebel Female M names (Mina): (continuing Allan's list): Minnie, Machi, Maci-Lei, Macy, Madeira, Maddy, Mab, Madison,Maelianna, Magda, Mai, Maida, Maiko, Mala, Mariana Male P names (Pedring): Peter, Pazman, Pancrazio, Palti, Parker, Pembroke, Pradeep, Pruit, Pusan None of these will likely verify, but honestly, no one really cares about this section anymore. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:35, August 11, 2011 (UTC) :Actually, this was one of my favorites; I guess no-one started this up yet because not that many names have been retired. Anyway, since I'm not sure what gender Bebeng or Juaning are: :*''Bebeng'' (male): :**Bart, Benny, Bobby, Brendan, Billy, Bert, Bernie, Bertie, Barry, Blake, Bruce, Bono (Who knows? There might be U2 fans in PAGASA) --HurricaneMaker99 15:27, August 11, 2011 (UTC) :*''Bebeng'' (female): :**Barbie, Becky, Betty, Brenda, Babe, Beverly, Bianca, Brianna :*''Juaning'' (male): :**Jack, Jeff, James, Jordan, Joseph, Josh, Joshua, Joe, Johnny, Jerry, Jim, Johann :--HurricaneMaker99 15:27, August 11, 2011 (UTC) :I don't know what name may be submitted for Juaning or Bebeng, but in the case of JMA replacements, it will be really tough to guess because replacement names for JMA names don't have to begin with the same letter as the retiree in question. There aren't any reasonable retirement canidates as of now anyways for the JMA. Neither Juaning or Bebeng hit the Philipines as hard as other storms in the past, but given the number of people they killed and the fact the Philipines are much more prepared now, they likely were pretty bad for them anyways, and I won't argue about it. Ryan1000 00:13, August 12, 2011 (UTC) : :HurricaneMaker, Bebeng and Juaning are both female names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:20, August 12, 2011 (UTC) :Replacement for Juaning is Julia. Hurricane Andrew, you got it right! Cyclone10 19:37, August 27, 2011 (UTC) :Cyclone10, where did you hear that fact? Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:20, August 27, 2011 (UTC) :Wikipedia. Cyclone10 00:49, August 28, 2011 (UTC) :Not on season article, but storm article.Cyclone10 00:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) :Note/s: ' :* '''replacement names should be somewhat Filipino-sounding, '''and also, ::::'there is still no replacement for Juaning. ' ::::'The replacement names will be announced the year that the names would be used again, just like Milenyo and Reming of 2006 - their replacements were announced four years later - Mario and Ruby in 2010. Anonymous 2.0 15: 00 (UTC+8) September 11, 2011 : Mina is alo gone for me replacements melissa maiya misa monica milly Allanjeffs 22:43, September 2, 2011 (UTC) : Allan, Mena is not a good choice because unlike Rita/Rina and Stan/Sean, not only is that name just one letter off, it sounds the same too. Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:05, September 3, 2011 (UTC) : Thanks Andrew is that I was gonna wirte Misa instead of Mena Allanjeffs 03:40, September 3, 2011 (UTC) ::Pedring gone. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:33, September 29, 2011 (UTC) : Any suggestions for Washi?--Cyclone10 04:32, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : @Cyclone10: Washi's replacement name will be very hard to guess, because A) JMA replacements don't have to begin with the reitrees' first letter, and B) Not all JMA names are human names or English. Andrew444TalkBlog 16:01, December 29, 2011 (UTC) :: Replacement names for JMA storms are just English translations of names submitted by countries in Asia. Lekima, for example, is the English translation of the name of a Vietnamese fruit on the lucuma tree, but they don't spell it like we do in Vietnam; they just say it that way. Washi refers to a type of paper in Japan, but we don't say "Tropical Storm Paper", because it's kinda bizzare to say that. If retirement existed in the NIO, this would be the same deal. Some names on the JMA list are English names submitted by the U.S, like Maria and Francisco, but most of the names are just translations of the words of their languages. Andrew, since the Philipines are going to be the ones retiring Washi, you have to think of Filipino names to replace it. Look here. It includes a list of tons of possible replacement names for Washi. Here is a list of possible names Japan could submit for Talas. Talas wasn't very strong when it hit Japan, but it caused several hundred million dollars in damage and was the deadliest typhoon to hit Japan in 30 years(59+ deaths after the storm, Typhoon Bess of 1982 was described as one of the worst typhoons in their history). Per Jeffmaster's latest blog post, Thelma of 1991 is actually the only storm in Filipino history that killed more people than Washi. So Washi is the second-deadliest storm disaster in the island's history. How sad... If I had to pick any one name to replace Washi and Talas, I would go with Ayako for Talas (meaning "colorful child"), and Balani (meaning "magnetic stone"; also called Balane) for Washi. But there are a bazillion different options to replace them, so don't expect to be right. Ryan1000 19:37, December 30, 2011 (UTC) : Ryan, Washi has two meanings, a paper, and the constellation Aquila. The meaning of the name "Washi" (in the tropical cyclone naming lists) refers to the constellation. The Philippines often use Filipino adjectives in the naming lists. Anonymous 2.0 18:32, January 6, 2012 (UTC+8) :: Well, JMA names still don't have to begin with the same letter as the retiree in question, so guessing Washi's replacement will be tough no matter what. And Anonymous 2.0, not all PAGASA names have to end in "eng", "ing", or "yo". Look on the 2012 PAGASA list, for example. It includes some names which are straightforward names we know, like Karen, Julian, Helen, Nina, or Pablo. And the replacement names on PAGASA's lists must begin with the same letter as the retiree in question, unlike JMA retirees. They can begin with completely different letters and be submitted by different countries. Washi is a Japanese name, but Japan won't be retiring it; the Philipines will be. I think that the only reason Washi's chances of retirement could be killed is if the Philipines admit the reason for the high death toll was their fault. The backround story on the island of Mindano is that the island was deforested during much of the 1970's and 80's. The island was more vulnerable to flash flooding and mudslides for that reason. Mindano had lots of very close calls from tropical cyclones back then, but it was only a matter of time until their luck would run out, and it did with Tropical Storm Washi. The people of Mindano did not heed the warning from Filipino officials that Washi was coming, so they were unprepared for the massive flooding and the death toll was staggeringly high. But still the Philipines normally have a good warning system for tropical cyclones and 1,236 deaths is in the record books for the islands. I strongly think Washi will be retired and knowing Japan, I think Talas will be retired too. I don't think anyone else will go. There is an outside chance Nesat or Nanmadol may go, but they were really overshadowed by Washi. Ryan1000 16:47, January 6, 2012 (UTC)